February 2025

Economic Reality Insight (ERI) – February 2025

ERI Score: 0.285

A rise in ERI signals growing economic stress. While unemployment ticks up to 4.1%, private-sector hiring slows sharply, and manufacturing momentum fades. With yield curve movements echoing past downturns, is the economy nearing a tipping point?

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Read the full analysis: https://www.enkiadvisors.com/post/economic-reality-insight-eri-february-2025-is-the-labor-market-cracking

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Enki Recession Index (ERI) Scale

• 0.00 – 0.29: Low Risk
  The economy is stable. Minimal signs of recession.

• 0.30 – 0.59: Moderate Risk
  Early indicators of economic strain. Monitor conditions closely.

• 0.60 – 0.79: High Risk
  Economic stress is increasing. A recession is likely within 6-12 months.

• 0.80 – 1.00: Critical Risk
  Recession is imminent or already unfolding. Prepare for significant economic disruption.