Weekly Markets & Risk Wrap — Week Ending February 13, 2026

(1) Executive Summary

Markets closed the week in a mixed and rotational pattern, with headline-sensitive technology shares softening while broader indexes held near recent highs. The overall tone was constructive but cautious: volatility stayed elevated relative to late‑January levels, and cross‑asset positioning showed continued demand for diversification and hedging.

Policy communication remained a central influence. Federal Reserve officials continued to emphasize a patient, risk-aware approach, reinforcing that policy decisions remain conditional on evolving economic and financial conditions rather than a preset path.

Outside equities, Treasury yields moved lower on the week, gold rebounded sharply, energy markets weighed supply headlines, and the U.S. dollar drifted weaker—collectively signaling a market still balancing growth optimism against valuation and policy uncertainty.

(2) Markets & Rates This Week (no curve analysis)

Equities & volatility

• The S&P 500 finished marginally higher on Friday, though the week was characterized by sector rotation and pressure on parts of the technology complex.

• Market tone was not broadly risk-off, but leadership narrowed and performance dispersion widened across sectors.

• Volatility remained above the calm levels seen earlier in the year, reflecting ongoing macro and policy sensitivity.
  

Treasury yields (daily/weekly movement only)

• 2-year Treasury: roughly 3.50% → 3.40% over the week.

• 10-year Treasury: roughly 4.22% → 4.04% over the week.

• Daily moves were incremental and mostly headline-driven, with rates reacting to shifting expectations around policy timing rather than structural repricing.
  

(3) Policy & Liquidity Signals

Federal Reserve communications

• Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated a cautiously optimistic outlook, highlighting improving supply-side dynamics while emphasizing that policy remains dependent on incoming evidence and evolving risks.

• The broader messaging theme this week was stability: officials continued to avoid committing to near-term shifts while signaling flexibility.
  

Liquidity and financial conditions

• Treasury market trading was orderly, with lower yields suggesting modest demand for duration and a mild easing in financial conditions at the margin.

• No systemic liquidity stress emerged, though volatility and cross‑asset positioning indicate investors remain selective in deploying risk.
  

(4) Corporate, Credit & Real‑Economy Signals

Corporate earnings & guidance

• Earnings season continued to generate large single-name reactions, especially in mega-cap and AI-related firms, reinforcing dispersion rather than a uniform trend.

• Investor focus increasingly centered on forward guidance and capital spending discipline.
  

Credit markets

• Credit markets remained broadly stable; spreads widened modestly in some pockets but did not signal stress escalation.

• Primary market activity remained open, suggesting financing conditions are still functional.
  

Layoffs / hiring headlines

• Corporate restructuring stories persisted across several sectors, consistent with an ongoing efficiency theme rather than abrupt demand deterioration.

• Workforce adjustments remain targeted and company-specific rather than macro driven.
  

(5) The Week’s Defining Theme

Rotation without breakdown.

The defining feature of the week was a shift in leadership rather than a broad reversal. Equities held up overall while rate-sensitive and growth-heavy segments saw selective pressure. At the same time, lower Treasury yields, stronger gold, and a softer dollar suggested investors were quietly increasing diversification even as major indexes remained resilient.

In practical terms: markets are still willing to own risk—but with tighter valuation discipline and more emphasis on policy clarity.

(6) What to Watch Next Week (calendar and scenario framing only)

Calendar focus

• Continued corporate earnings flow and guidance revisions.

• Additional Fed commentary that may clarify the balance between patience and flexibility.

• Energy market headlines tied to supply developments and geopolitical negotiations.
  

Scenario framing

• Constructive path: earnings guidance stabilizes, volatility drifts lower, and yields remain anchored—supportive for a broadening equity rally.

• Risk-sensitive path: renewed sector concentration or policy uncertainty keeps volatility elevated and reinforces rotational trading instead of trend expansion.
  

(7) Call to Action

For the broader macro framework and long‑cycle context behind these weekly shifts, review the current Monthly U.S. Economic Report:

Upcoming themes to monitor

• Earnings guidance revisions and capital allocation signals.

• Ongoing Fed communication shaping policy expectations.

• Energy and geopolitical developments influencing commodity prices and risk sentiment.
  

(8) Brief Disclaimer

This publication is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Nothing contained herein should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or to engage in any particular investment strategy. Views reflect market conditions as of the week‑ending date and are subject to change without notice.